"Our projections are always right. But sometimes we get the years wrong." That quip, from Gordon Borrell of Borrell & Associates, was among my favorite soundbites spoken at the Television Bureau of Advertising's annual powwow earlier today.
It resonated for me because I've spent the last month checking in with a series of media analysts, TV rep firms and TV station group executives to find out what expectations are for national and local spot TV advertising for full year 2010 and 2011. And my article on the topic published yesterday by TVNewsCheck in anticipation of both today's TVB conference and yesterday's Outlook conference organized by the Media Financial Management Association.
One of the most interesting aspects for me in reporting the story was the debate about whether the stampede of auto advertising this year will be followed by a healthy rise next year. Because that's traditionally been the dominant ad category for stations, it's an important topic for them.
Yesterday, Gene Cameron of J.D. Power told MFM conference attendees that the number of cars sold in the U.S. should climb from about 11.6 million this year to 13.2 million in 2011 -- and that pretty much mirrors what Steve Finlay of the auto biz bible Ward's Dealer Business said today at the TVB gabfest.
As there's a direct correlation between auto sales and auto ad spend, that's a really sweet curve for broadcasters. But interestingly enough (to me anyway), Cameron sees a flattening of auto sales in the 2014 to 2016 period -- when it is likely to hover above 16 million. That's about a million shy of its 2000 peak. And he couldn't tell me what that meant for media because there are so many unknown variables.
There were a few passionate pleas at the conference today for broadcasters to wake up and utilize digital media much more effectively than they have in the past or they'll miss the gravy train completely -- hearkening back to my interview with Rino Scanzoni of a few weeks ago (see post below).
Which brings me to another favorite quote from today, from Tracey Sheppach, a VP at the mighty Publicis, who has earned the nickname Sheppach-olypse because of her dire warnings to broadcasters: "Every person I've met who resists becomes a very unhappy person in the end."
Here's my story on the TVNewsCheck site and here's a pdf version:
Download TVN - Spot Forecast 091510